as a short favorite (2.5+) as a plus-money dog — since 2016 — moneyline
Moneyline
Record
24-4
Win %
85.7%
ROI
267.5%
Games
28
Avg price
+368
p-value
0.0000
Out-of-sample
14-0 (100%)
Confidence
Med
The briefing
One written case for this trend: the record, the line it played into, the EPA of the offenses and defenses in the sample, and the quarterback in the live spot.
Matchup mismatch
vs
Pick both sides to overlay national ranks.
Game log
| Date | Season | Team | Opp | Site | Final | Margin | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/13/2025 | 2025 |  BAY | SAMF | home | 42-7 | +35 | -51.5 | 64.5 |
| 09/13/2025 | 2025 |  TCU | ABCH | home | 42-21 | +21 | -42.5 | 60.5 |
Showing 2 of 2 qualifying games.
What has to be true
- Team is a favorite of 2.5 or more
- Sample starts with the 2016 season
- money line>=100
Raw query
line<=-2.5 and season>=2016 and money line>=100